Good Immigration Policy?

In last Novermber, Thailand started a new visa policy to regulate re-entering of migrant workers for a certain period of time

The content of the regulation: "The policy states that one can only stay in Thailand for 90 days in a period of six months, after which one must leave the country and stay outside for another 90 days before they can re-enter."

Reason (1) Screening the movement of foriegners in Thailand: "who is coming and going, for how long, and with what frequency"

Reason (2) Sweeping out ill-mannered foriegn workers who are engaed with "human trafficking, paedophilia, child pornography and so on"

Reason (3) Promoting tougher immigration control on illegal migrant workers without valid status to work or to stay in Thailand

Intention: Doing a "visa run" - crossing one of the borders of Thailand into Burma, Cambodia, Laos or Malaysia is very often. Thailand probably created the new regulation to keep "sociopaths and criminals" away.

Problem: This regulation would hamper some humanitraian activites over borders, because they suffer from regsitration costs or inefficiency or inconveinence of renewal. On the other hand, sociopaths and criminals often shortly stay, and could be engaged with some syndicates, which meas this policy might be be so efficient.

*Oh, I feel headache, when I imagine how much Thailand immigration authorities are struggling with those kinds of criminals.

Resourece: "THAILAND COMMENTARY - NEW VISA REGULATIONS MAY NOT BE WELL THOUGHT OUT," Thai Press Report, November 9, 2006. http://web.lexis-nexis.com/

Inefficiency of documentation of migrant workers in Thailand

Accroding to Bankok Post, because labor regulation in Thailand on migrant workers is poor, documented migrant workers often neglect on renewing their legal status.

One researcher suggests some risks

Phenomenon: it is just inconvenient for the migrant workers in some particular industrial sectors such as fishery or agriculture to renew their status. Some of them have to work on the sea for several months. Some of them are just sesonal migrant workers only step by during harvest seasons.

(1) This might make them vulnerable to exploitation by their employers, because the employers can seize their documnets.
(2) Also, medical claims by undocumented people would be expensive.
(3) They would easily be arrested by police, because their legal status is illegal.

Statistical Transition of the Number of Documented Aliens from Burma, Laos and Cambodia.
2001 > 568,249
2002> 430,074
2003> 288,780
2004> 838,943 (this sharp increase was caused by new regulation that requires family member registration )
2005> 460,014

The National Fisheries Association of Thailand are suffering from its labor shortage, because ,,,

(1) undocumented migrant workers just seek new employment without completing their term.
(2) employers who accept undocumented labourers are to be punished.
(3) illegal migrant workers could be deported anytime.

*In my opinion, it seems so difficult to assume the cost to promote the documentation of illegal workers.

Resource: "THAILAND NUMBER OF MIGRANT WORKERS SEEKING WORK PERMIT RENEWALS STEADILY DECLINES DUE TO POOR LABOUR REGULATIONS, RESEARCHER SAYS" Thai Press Report, April 4, 2007. http://web.lexis-nexis.com/

Burmese Immigration

Currently, there is serious tention between Thailand and Burma in term of mass influx of Burmese immigratns into Thailand, even though Thailand is the largest trading partner.

Closure of Thai-Burmese borders might be closed, because the securituy there is very fragile. Thai rangeron the borders got killed on March 21 in a grenade explosion, which proved the security there is problematic. A Thailand's immigration office that is away from only 50 meters was broken too. The area is also near conflict zone between the Burmese government and the Shan State Army (SSA).

"Immigration office raided as tensions on border persist"
Cheewin Sattha & Subin Kheunkaew. The Bangkok Post. Bangkok: Apr 1, 2007. pg. 1

Burmese immigrants can come to neighbering relatively developed countries. The way they come to those countries might be SMUGGLING. Thailand, Chiang Rai, is planning the Royal Flora Expo. There was an event that the local police intercepted a caravan of 10 vans taking almost 100 illegal Burmese immigrants to Chiang Mai. Accoringt to the resource that I picked up, they tend to work on construction sites and in factories.

4,000 baht makes drivers to "pick up the aliens at Mae Sai district and take them to the expo."
Some of the arrested Burmese claimed to have paid 4,000 baht each for the week-long tour to Chiang Mai. Illegal immigratns are only to be detained and deported.

However, people such as Burmese immigratns going to Thailands might support your county a lot.

"Illegal Burmese found in vans"
The Bangkok Post. Bangkok: Jan 8, 2007. pg. 1

Ranking of Asian Counries

According to the National Wages and Productivity Commision of Phillipine, Phillipine ranked No. 11 among Asian countries in 2005. Its average producticity of $663.80, the third lowest among East Asian countries. It's only higher than Cambodia and Vietnam (Burma and East Timor excluded). The highest is Hong Kong ($56,254.66) and Singapore ($47,621.51).

Labor productivity is the average output per employed person. It is computed by dividing the annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by the number of employed people.
Phillipine seems a little bit upset about it, and therefore, has to improve thier productivity.


Resorce: "DOLE RP MUST HIKE PRODUCTIVITY"
Financial Times, Philippine Daily Inquirer, March 12, 2007.

Apparel Transaction between US and Burma

Around the time that the Clinton Administration banned new investment on Myanmar, Pentagon was importing about $138,290 in clothing. Some criticized that such transactions are probrelmatic in terms of human rights.

The Army and Air Force Exchange Service had traded with Myanmar whille the administration was focsusing on human rights violation in the country in October . Critics outraged, because the transaction would help the junta that was causing human rights violations.

According to a spokes man, the US military branch had $ 7.3 billion in sales last year (1999?) at 1,400 stores. He said ''We're aware of the sanctions against Burma, but they have nothing to do with the sale or purchase of goods or services. What they have to do with are new investments, which we're not involved with.''

It was 1997, an economic sanction was impoed on Myanmar by the Clinton administration, even though trade with Myanmar itseled was not being denied by law at the time.

The transaction was largely increased by American apparel industry that could benefit low-waged labor.

Because,,,

"Myanmar's apparel workers earn just 8 cents an hour, making them among the world's lowest paid manufacturing workers."

Maybe, this information can help you imagine how cheap Burmese wage is, even though uniformed information about it has no been seen.

In the first nin months 2000, US apparel industry imported $308 million in goods from Myanmar, which was almost twice sized transaction if compared with the same period of last year. The branch "had about 10, 000 pounds garments made by the Newest Garment Manufarcturing Company sent from Yangon, formerly Rangoon, to Los Angels, arriving Oct. 19.
"
The president was trying to deny any economic transaction with Myanmar, becasue the junta kept ignoring a result of national election, victory for Democracy.

The critics against the transaction insisted ''The 1997 U.S. sanctions law on new investment in Burma primarily was clearly intended to deprive the Burmese military junta of funds with which to perpetuate human rights abuses and ethnic cleansing campaigns and to pressure the junta into commencing a dialogue with Suu Kyi's political party and ethnic minorities. Unfortunately, the new surge in apparel exports to the U.S. undermines the spirit of that law, allowing the regime to enrich itself and take advantage of unsuspecting American consumers.''

Resorce: "Burmese Sales To the PX Are Provoking Rights Protest" NY times Dec 19, 2000

Bilateral Relatioship between Burma and Malaysia (1)

According to the resource sited below, Burma was trying to strengthen bilateral relationship with Malaysia in areas of "Utility Management, Health, Education, Information and Communication Technology, Agriculture and Trade and Investment" in 2002.

The conferece about technology between representations of SPDC (junta of Myanmar) and high rank officials of Malaysia that was reported on 21 Augast, 2002 went well. And its success factor was that the high level representations and enterpreneurs attended in the counference.

Such a bilateral relationship should be regarded by dynamism of reagional integration, ASEAN (at least ASEAN plus 3 or even 4? I don't know). Economic interdependance is unavoidable in Globalization.

This conference's intention was to promote the advantages of Globalization with cooperation between academic sector andn private sector, and to lessen risk of negative effect of it. Myanmar's Econ is based on Agriculture, but it could not sustain it forever, and would need sustainable development anyway.

For the sustainable development, Burma needs to advance its own utilities, and therefore, they need "rapid advancement in technology." Overcomng development gap or hurman resorces' risk of survival is required in the dynamism.

The leaders who attended the conferecne confirmed that strengthinning the relationship between the two countries would contributes to intra-ASEAN trade and investments or regional collabolation. Maybe, such regional interests could cover the Burma fragile economy and collect investment to Burma.

Resource: The New Light of Myanmar web site, Rangoon, in English 21 Aug 02/BBC Monitoring/(c) BBC

Paper 2 Preparation (1) Economic Agreement

Since 2001, Myanmar and China bilateraly started having several economic agreements in areas such as fishery, investment protection, agriculture, natural & human resources, and infrastructure. Until then, they never had bilateral economic agreements, even though they have been good neighbors for each other.

The scale of their trade mounted US $0.862 billion in 2002, and it increased by 36 % compared to 2001. China is the third largest trade partner for Myanmar next to Singapore and Thialand. On one hand, China exports textile, electronics and hi-tech products. On the other hand, Myanmar exports primary goods such as timber, gems and saw lumber (Because China domestically has restrictions on forestry ).

Resource: http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/wjb/zzjg/yzs/gjlb/2747/default.htm

As I mentioned in the last articles, their relationship is relevant in Asean frame work too.

Burma and China

This is my notes of an article of Institute of Developing Economics, titled as "Maynmar's Economic Relations with China: Can China Support the Myanmar Economy?"

"China has constatnly occupied a high ranking since 1988, when Myanmar-China border trade, hitherto an activity deemed illegal, was legitimized and formalized. " "While Maynma's exports to China increased by 1.3 times, from US $133.7 million in 1988 to US $169.4 million in 2003, its imports from China expanded by 7.1 times, from US $ 136.2 million in 1988 to US $967.2 million in 2003, resulting in a huge trade deficit of US $797.7 million in 2003, which was 4.4 times larger than Myanmar's total trade deficit in the same year."

Maynmar's exports to China "are mostly composed of wood, gem stones, and fruit and nuts," and "has become more and more dependant on wood exports, and eventually the share of wood exports occupied nearly 70% for the period between 2000 and 2003."

Burma Economic Prospect

This is my note of Burma's Economic Prospects, an article by Burma Economic Watch

1) Claimed Annual GDP
From 1999 (10.9%) to 2005 (1.2%), Burmese GDP Growth increases at over 10%.

However,

1) There is no published national accout statistics. Plus, the official statistics are unreliable (deliberately misleading).
2) According to Asian Development Bank, electricity usage in Burma fell by 3.4 percent from 2004 to 2005. (output of cement fell by 8.5%, or output of sugar also fell by 2%)
3) Less reliance on agriculture, greater reliance on industry, and even the emergence of services have been seen.

2) Composition of Exports (kyat millions)
Gas that is mostly from Yanada and Yetagun fields, is No.1 profitable export from 2002 (4,247) to 2005 (3,461). Gas sector is collecting investment most too (US$142,6 million in 2005).
Then, timber from 1,880 to 810. Thirdly, Pulses from 1,898 to 503. Garments, shirimp, Metal, Rice are followed. Ruber is the last from 76 to 61.

3) Agriculture
According to UNDP (2003), "57 per cent of Burma's GDP and engages over 70 per cent of its labour force." "Critical inputs such as fertiliser are unavailable to most farmers at prices they can affrod, and over 80 per cent of Burma's land under cultivation lacks irrigation of any form." Inexplicably, the private banks are forbidden to lend for farming."

Reading "Think ASEAN!" part (1)

This is my note of fundamental information that is introduced in the first chapter of "Think ASEAN!"

1) Its Aim
By 2015, ASEAN member countries agreed to work on creating a single market. There are three areas for which ASEAN community is existing to make "a peaceful, prosperious, and peoplecentric ASEAN" : security, economy and socio-culture. (Preface ix)

2) Its Scale
Despite its diversity in race, language and religion, ASEAN "[s]pread over an area of 4,480,000 km2 with a population of more than 540 million indigenous people, immigratns, and scions of inter-marriages" as "a classic model of social and cultural integration." (Page5)

3) IT development
ASEAN adopted "the e-ASEAN Framework Agreement to facilitate the establishment of the ASEAN Information Infrastructure (AII)" and encourages "the growth of e-services and e-commerce in business, society, and governtment ." (Page15)

4) Orbicom research
Orbicom, an organ of UNESCO in communications, scaled how much ASEAN countries improved its "ICT-zation" or the "infostate" of ICT (information and communication technologies) in "the aggregation of the ICT infrastructure, skills, uptake, and intensity of use."
From 1995 to 2003, ASEAN's increased digital divide (between the highest (Singapore) and lowest infostates (Myammer) from 85.9 to 215. Singapore increased its infostate from 87.3 to 225. 7 (159% UP!). Thailand also increased it from 24.2 to 78.5 (224% UP!!). Burma (Myammar) greatly changed its infostate from 1.4 to 10.7 (664% UP!!!). Nonetheless, Vietnam is the country that increased its insfostate most greatly from 2.7 to 37 (1,270% UP!!!!).
"For low infostate economics in Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar, the challenge is to lay the necessary foundation for opportunities in ICT development. "

Such development of ICT requires its development of education or skill training as well.

The Shwe Gas Movement

The ruling junta provides natural resource in return for reveneue and support for its regime.
Burma is geographically surrounded by India, China and Thailand, and demand of oil or gas is quite high.

"India and China rely on crude oil imports for 70 percent and 40 percent of their needs respectively and are both engaged in a competitive global for gas and oil"

According to the Shwe Gas Movement's projection in 2004 with the standard that is used for Yanada and Yatagon pipline to Thailand, Burma would earn US$580 million on average for 20 years.

www.narinjara.com/PDF/SUPPLYANDCOMMAND.pdf

Burma Investment Climate Statement (2005)

This is my note of 2005 Invesment Climate Statement --Burma by U.S. Department of State.

1) US still holds a ban on U.S. investement in Burma since 1997, and sanctions have been imposed since 2003 to ban all imoprts from Burma and all financial transactions between U.S. citizen and Burma.

-1997 ban was Executive Order 13047 by the President due to human rights records of Burma.
-Every six months, US review own economic bans. but there is no progress in Burma.

-1997 federal sanction ban prohibits new investment to Burmese investment.

-2003 the Burmese Freedom and Democracy Act prohibits imports from Burma and transaction btwn Burma and U.S. It stops military sale or any institutional assistanc, and issuing visas to Burmes

-BUT! US EXPORT TO BURMA DOES EXIST.

2)But the ruling junta (the State Peace and Development Council) is having open economy policy to call investments, but foreign farms have to obey a lot of absurd regulations.

-1988, Foreign Invesment Law was implemented. Its priorities are folloing : expansion of exports, imposing heavy investment on natural resouce exploitation, advanceing technologies, suppoting domestic industries, increasing educations, developing infrastracture and local regions

-1989, the State-Owned Economic Enterprises Law let domestic enterpirises have following rights: to have exploit or sell natural resources such as teak, firewood, natural gas, pearls or jems, fish and prawns, metals ; to preserve telecomunication services, transport services, banking and insurances, braodcasting, energy generating services, security production services.

-The Myanmar InvestmentCommission (MIC) can make exceptions for state interest under 1989 the State-Owend Economic Enterprises Law in areas such as asbanks, extraction of petroleum and natural gas, and air services. But its authority deserves critique due to corruptions since 1999. Everything is just judged case by case.

-Foreign companies have to get lisences to invest and to trade from the junta goverment. However, the administration service is always problematic. Now foreign investor have to make deal with local firms with cover of Burmese partners having risks. In order to invest firms, it's gonnna practically cost $500,000 in cash or kind at least.

-Even though the Foreign Investment Law (FIL) guarantees that they can repatriate profits to the investors, foreign investors hardly transer their net profits legally due to the shortage of foreign exchange. Foreign currency can be transferd only through the Foreign Exhchange Management Departement of the Central Bank of Myanmar.

-There are only three state banks: the Myanma Foreign TradeBank (MFTB), the Myanma Investment and Commercial Bank(MICB) and the Myanma Economic Bank (MEB) are allowed to deal with foreign exchange transactions.

(3) Labor
Labor unions are basically illegal in Burma. Although regulations set a minimum employment age and wage, and maximum workhours, these are not uniformly observed, especially inprivate factories and other establishments. That Burma uses forced labor is agaisnt ILO standards.

Burma's cost of labor is very low, even compared to some ofits Southeast Asian neighbors. Basically, through older generaion is well educated, young generation is quite low skilled labor due to unaccessbility to university educations for 15 years. They are basically caplable of speaking of English. An average worker in Burma will make about 500-800 kyat (roughly $0.50 to $0.80) per day.

CIA World Factbook- Burma Trade

Information about Burma trade will be abstracted from CIA World Factbook.

Main Export Commodities: clothing, gas, wood products, pulses, beans, fish, and rice.

Main Export Partners: Thailand 43.8%, India 12.1%, China 6.7%, Japan 5% (2005) .

Main Import Commodities: fabric, petroleum products, plastics, machinery, transport equipment, construction materials, crude oil; food products.

Main Import Parters: China 28.8%, Thailand 21.8%, Singapore 18.4%, Malaysia 7.6% (2005) .

Main occupation: agriculture: 70% industry: 7% services: 23% (2001 est.)

Think Asean!

It is hard to predict how Thailand, one of the best Burmese tade partners, will develop, because it also has problems for its order. However, keeping eyes on Thailands' borders might lead the next possitive step for the future.

Even though a serious economic crisis totally crushed its domestic industies, we can find a positive examples to create the step: Black Canyon, a company founded by Thanong Bidaya and Prvit Chitnarapong, took advantage of the crisis to enlarge its main retail locations with "rock-bottom prices" sometimes. Currently, this restaurant chian can be seen in Bangkok, Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, Cambodia and Burma.

Think Asean!, a book that promotes this regional integration, suggests marketing initiatives for companies looking to take advantage of the 550 million poeple in the 10 -nation bloc. It treats succesful companies of the region such as Bengawan Solo (Singapore), Dji Sam Soe (Indonesia), Goldilocks (the Philippines), Royal Selangor (Malaysia), Black Canyon (Thailand) and Number One Tonic Drink (Vietnam)."

Oh, this article is totally an advertisement of the book!! Actually, I ordered this book for the next paper through Amazon. com.

Source: "Insperation in challenging times" Bangkok Post. Jan 29, 2007.

Can ASEAN be a succesful regional integration like EU?

Three weeks ago (from Jan 29, 2007), leaders who represents 10 Southeast Asian countries in Philipine, and agreed to promote thier freetrade-based regional integration as much as EU.

Point is if people in these region can be stisfied with this current or not.

ASEAN is trying to make regional economic community as free trade zone by 2015. The issues that ASEAN should overcome are clear: income disparities in ASEAN countries, political/cultural diversity, delay of trade liberlization and good governance and human rights.

According to Haruhiko Kuroda, the president of the Asean Development Bank in Manila, ASEAN "should bridge the income gap before it can even dream of becoming as integrated as the European Union."

His prescription is following below:

1) taking advantage of free trade agreements that had already been seen with each other including other countries in East Asia

2) improving each country's institutions and fighting corruption as the World Bank mentioned (Laos, Vietnam, the Philipines, Cambodia, Indonesia and Myanmar are terrible are the 50 most corrupt states in the world) to collect investment

Burma is a prominent authoritative coutnry in ASEAN region, even though other countries such as Thailand or Philipines are also problematic. Burma's human rights record is a big obstacle for ASEAN integration, which is exaggerated by the Western countries.

Another point is that this economic integration should evetually be "genuine regional solidarity."

It may be true that ASEAN relies on trade negotiation (FTA) too much. "[S]ensible trade policy reforms at home" is essential for economic pregress in this reagion.

Okey, how do you think, folks?

Souce: "Reality intrudes on dreams of EU-like pact for ASEAN; [1R Edition]"
by Carlos H. Conde, International Herald Tribune, Jan 29, 2007

Political & Economic Picture of Burma

Over borders between Thailand and Burma, there is a clear difference: Burma territory is full of forest and army control: there are so many tourists or agents from various countries for each stake in Thailand's side.

Economically, China and India (US allay) are trying to influence Burma as much as they can. Actually, China officially have had $5 million trade agreements (and vast unofficial aid or loan) with Burma.

However, political situation of Burma is too complex to predict how Burmese economic situation will improve. Burma exports a lot of natural resources such as narctics and methamphetamine and sends officers for military training to Moscow and Beijing, and showed an interests in DPRK's nuke last year. US-drafted Security Council resolution was vetoed by Rossia and China.

According to Wall Street Journal, "the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) Declared its support for the Rangoon regime against internal "insurgents," and the state news paper has carried reports of "U.S.-backed" terrorist bombs on its soil.

On the other hand, the junta's forcible policies have made resentiment among own citizens. Humanrights movemetns, ethnic groups' prtest, and democratic activites just reflect the junta's suppresion. Nonetheless, profitable national economic plans such as "logging, mining, pipeline-building" (drug deal too) might be difficult to advance without the junta's authoritative politics, because it is difficult to achieve such national interests without slavery (free) labor, or to compromise with each actor about the delopment planing that might cause destruction of natural environment in such a ethnic diversity.

Alomost all of Burmese citizens are really fed up with the junta, and amire the West.

OK, how do you think, folks?

Source: "On a far frontier" by Melik Kaylan
Feb 12, 2007, Wall Street Journal (Eastern edition)

Tourism

A spanish tour company has increased its profit by 21% in 2006 with comparison to that in 2005. Many customers tend to go to China, India, Thailand, Vietnam and Burma!

CATAI TOURS' TURNOVER UP 29% (CATAI TOURS LA FACTURACION CRECIO UN 29% EL ANO PASADO)
Souce: http://web.lexis-nexis.com

Relationship between Burma and ASEAN

OK, this is not obviously ECON thing, but this information is kind of important to think about economic relationships among South East Asian countries.

ASEAN is trying to make Burma improve humanrights records and change to be democratice country. Burma's junta has lasted for more than 40 years. In 1997, Burma joined ASEAN, and naighboring contries such as Malaysia, Philipine, Indonesia and Thailand give Burma do hope regime change. Specific timeflame and prompt improvement is really tough for Myammer to accept.

Well, interestingly, this article says "What is more, the analysts fear that rising international pressure, especially from teh West, will drive Burma closer to China. Burma does considerable trade with China -selling timber and other natural resources that China's booming economy needs. Experts say that as long as China trades with Burma, the military government may be able to withstand pressure to change for years."

Copyright 2006 Federal Information and News Dispatch, Inc. Voice of America News
December 5, 2006
Headline: ASEAN Facing Credibility Test Over PRessing Burma on Political Reform

Okey, please let me keep discussion, here.

Recently, in Security Coucil, US-drafted resolution to change Burma into democratic was vetoed by China and Russia. Malaysian president is in favor of China and Russia behavior, even though "Asean and the international community have been telling Myanmar to undertake genuine political reforms, including the release of opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi and other political prisoners."

In my opinion, it is difficult to say if ASEAN is trying to keep away East Asian economic bloc from radical change such as humanitarian intervention by US, or if Malaysia wants Burmese junta last as long as possible. Keep your eye on BURMA!

http://www.bernama.com.my/bernama/v3/news.php?id=241165

Comparative Advantage of Burma

What comparative advantage does burma can have?

Obviously, its main comparative advantage should be producing natural resource for neighboring countries.
Burma is a resouce-rich country, but its economic is always instable. Inflation and multiple official exchange rates cause overvalue the Burmese kyat and distorted interest rate. Burma has been suffering from economic sanction that is mostly ban on trades or financial seervice by US since 2003, because Burma government having prominent humanrights problem. Industires related with oil, gas, mining and timber is productive. In manufacturing and services, there is shortage of infrastructure. Its main trade was perfoermed with Thailand, China and India. Its exports and tourism could be comparative advantage in future, if Burma can collect invesment for it.

https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/bm.html#Econ

Recent News( Jan 16, 2007)

Myanmer is going to sell China oil company oil/gas exploration rights at three deep-sea blocks off the oil-rich country's western Rakhine coast. On the other hand, US drafted Security Council Resolution was vetoed by both China and Russia. The production will be shared among the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and the Myanmar Oil and Gas Enterprise under the Ministry of Energy. The total area of the production 10,000 square-kiloneters. Recently, Burma tends to have relaionship with neighbering countries such as Singapore too.

>In my opinion, maybe, without political settlement of US economic sanction, investment for other industries in this country will be difficult to be achieved.

http://www.zeenews.com/znnew/articles.asp?rep=2&aid=348147&ssid=51&sid=BUS